repost//@GMF_Light: 【大摩带你回顾2016年大选时的美债市场走势】对于不记得2016年大选日前后美债市场价格走势的投资者，MS供了图表作为提醒。在11月8日星期二下午3点国债市场收盘后，收益率横盘整理，直到晚上7点各州投票站开始关闭——此后，10年期国债收益率在接下来的一个小时内上涨不到5bp。到晚上8点，大约一半的州投票站已经关闭，10年期国债收益率回撤了5bp。然后，就在晚上9点之前——80%的投票站即将关闭——美国国债收益率大幅走低。10年期国债收益率下跌了约15bp，然后在美东时间午夜左右趋于稳定。11月9日凌晨1点刚过（见图1中左侧第一个竖条），尽管选举结果尚未正式宣布，但许多新闻媒体开始报道特朗普明显领先。这些迹象促使美债收益率上升——收复了晚上9点后下跌的约三分之二。凌晨2点30分，新闻媒体开始宣布特朗普获胜（见图1中的第二个竖线）。凌晨2:50，特朗普发表了获胜演讲——此后，美国国债收益率开始持久但快速的上涨。 在特朗普承认（希拉里）克林顿进行了一场艰苦的竞选之后，他说："Now it is time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people.I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be President for all of Americans, and this is so important to me. For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people, I'm reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we can work together and unify our great country."他的演讲重点在于重建国内基础设施，并与国际社会合作："We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We're going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it......We have a great economic plan. We will double our growth and have the strongest economy anywhere in the world. At the same time, we will get along with all other nations willing to get along with us. We will be. We will have great relationships. We expect to have great, great relationships......I want to tell the world community that while we will always put America's interests first, we will deal fairly with everyone, with everyone. All people and all other nations. We will seek common ground, not hostility; partnership, not conflict."演讲结束后，投资者对经济增长的预期上升，导致股票价格上涨，债券价格下跌。2024年总统就职演讲能否带来同样的效果？时间会告诉我们哪位候选人发表演讲，以及是什么时候。MS认为，候选人在演讲中关注的话题将对投资者以及年底的市场走势产生重要影响。

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